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	<title>Comments on: What&#8217;s going on?</title>
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	<link>http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/whats-going-on/</link>
	<description>Economic Commentary from a Labour supporting fund manager</description>
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		<title>By: charliemarks</title>
		<link>http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/whats-going-on/#comment-17</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[charliemarks]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Mar 2009 02:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/?p=7#comment-17</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Arguably the best way to get credit flowing again is for the banks to be nationalised. I think this worked in Sweden quite well and here&#039;s why:

Commercial decisions will still be made on who to lend to and at what cost to the lender - but public ownership will get around the one big obstacle, which is that the people running banks are looking to provide returns to the owners and so make decisions on lending in a different way. Instead of being cautious about lending because they are mindful that their job is to give a return to investors, they will be more eager to lend, but nonetheless mindful of risks, etc. We can see the government has reversed its previous policy with Northern Rock.

With public ownership it&#039;s not about the sectional interest of shareholders (or even, the government as shareholder) but about the interest of the whole of our economy in the long term - ensuring that productive enterprises get the financing they need.

The big problem with all of this will be the EU&#039;s rules on these matters. Sweden&#039;s banking crisis and it&#039;s recovery happened prior to the country becoming a member of the European Union. The political right likes to paint the EU as some kind of warmed-up Soviet Union, but in fact EU institutions would probably oppose nationalisation of the private banking sector on several grounds (competition rules, the rights of shareholders, etc.).

Now, it&#039;s the kind of measure that might need EU approval, and might take a damaging length of time (look at the govt assistance to our car manufacturers - it was held up while the European Commission vetted it). But the government will have to be tough and say it will take the consequences from the Commission.

As to the future ownership in the banking sector, I think we would be wise to learn the lessons of this crisis: the shareholder-as-owner has proven dangerous.

Which financial institutions have been responsible and have not needed public money to bail them out? The building societies, owned by their customers: no one expects from building societies anything other than boring banking - no financial wizardry. Indeed, many of the failed institutions were once owned by their customers - Bradford and Bingley, Halifax, Northern Rock, etc.

As a customer and member of a building society, I don&#039;t ask much more than a good service, either as a lender or saver; I certainly don&#039;t demand of the people running it that they come up with more ways of making money. Now it might be argued that this kind of high-street banking doesn&#039;t apply to the financing of bigger businesses - but my question would be, why not?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Arguably the best way to get credit flowing again is for the banks to be nationalised. I think this worked in Sweden quite well and here&#8217;s why:</p>
<p>Commercial decisions will still be made on who to lend to and at what cost to the lender &#8211; but public ownership will get around the one big obstacle, which is that the people running banks are looking to provide returns to the owners and so make decisions on lending in a different way. Instead of being cautious about lending because they are mindful that their job is to give a return to investors, they will be more eager to lend, but nonetheless mindful of risks, etc. We can see the government has reversed its previous policy with Northern Rock.</p>
<p>With public ownership it&#8217;s not about the sectional interest of shareholders (or even, the government as shareholder) but about the interest of the whole of our economy in the long term &#8211; ensuring that productive enterprises get the financing they need.</p>
<p>The big problem with all of this will be the EU&#8217;s rules on these matters. Sweden&#8217;s banking crisis and it&#8217;s recovery happened prior to the country becoming a member of the European Union. The political right likes to paint the EU as some kind of warmed-up Soviet Union, but in fact EU institutions would probably oppose nationalisation of the private banking sector on several grounds (competition rules, the rights of shareholders, etc.).</p>
<p>Now, it&#8217;s the kind of measure that might need EU approval, and might take a damaging length of time (look at the govt assistance to our car manufacturers &#8211; it was held up while the European Commission vetted it). But the government will have to be tough and say it will take the consequences from the Commission.</p>
<p>As to the future ownership in the banking sector, I think we would be wise to learn the lessons of this crisis: the shareholder-as-owner has proven dangerous.</p>
<p>Which financial institutions have been responsible and have not needed public money to bail them out? The building societies, owned by their customers: no one expects from building societies anything other than boring banking &#8211; no financial wizardry. Indeed, many of the failed institutions were once owned by their customers &#8211; Bradford and Bingley, Halifax, Northern Rock, etc.</p>
<p>As a customer and member of a building society, I don&#8217;t ask much more than a good service, either as a lender or saver; I certainly don&#8217;t demand of the people running it that they come up with more ways of making money. Now it might be argued that this kind of high-street banking doesn&#8217;t apply to the financing of bigger businesses &#8211; but my question would be, why not?</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Drew</title>
		<link>http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/whats-going-on/#comment-5</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Drew]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2009 12:07:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/?p=7#comment-5</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a fourth danger to the optimistic view, as I hinted &lt;a href=&quot;http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2009/03/uk-sliding-fast-good-news.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here in the first comment&lt;/a&gt;.  A refined just-in-time supply chain is a delicate thing, almost by definition.  When manufacturers eventually flick the on-switch, they may find that their carefully developed chain doesn&#039;t spring back into action as readily as they&#039;d hope.

Some of this is to do with commercial structures, some to do with simple physical infrastructure.   If a steel plant shuts down for 9-12 months, even if coal and iron-ore will be easy to source when they decide to get started again  I&#039;m willing to bet that the railway links will have fallen into a mild state of disrepair. 

Everything can be rebuilt eventually, but it doesn&#039;t necessarily mean the patterns of the downturn and the upturn are symmetrical.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a fourth danger to the optimistic view, as I hinted <a href="http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2009/03/uk-sliding-fast-good-news.html" rel="nofollow">here in the first comment</a>.  A refined just-in-time supply chain is a delicate thing, almost by definition.  When manufacturers eventually flick the on-switch, they may find that their carefully developed chain doesn&#8217;t spring back into action as readily as they&#8217;d hope.</p>
<p>Some of this is to do with commercial structures, some to do with simple physical infrastructure.   If a steel plant shuts down for 9-12 months, even if coal and iron-ore will be easy to source when they decide to get started again  I&#8217;m willing to bet that the railway links will have fallen into a mild state of disrepair. </p>
<p>Everything can be rebuilt eventually, but it doesn&#8217;t necessarily mean the patterns of the downturn and the upturn are symmetrical.</p>
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		<title>By: duncanseconomicblog</title>
		<link>http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/whats-going-on/#comment-3</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[duncanseconomicblog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2009 11:38:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/?p=7#comment-3</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Newmania,

I think deflation can be good or bad. Deflation can be caused by technological progress (railway lowering transport costs in the nineteenth century) or by a fundamental chnage (China&#039;s entry into the global entry, pushing down costs of manufactured goods). In these cases, then yes deflation is good - it lowers costs.

However defkation can also be destructive, deflation caused by a fundamental lack of demand is likely to make demand even weaker. That coupled with high debt levels can be dangerous.

I would argue that in the early noughties Central Banks mistook &#039;good&#039; deflation (arising from China) for &#039;bad&#039; deflation and cut rates too far. But I also argue that what we face now is &#039;bad&#039; deflation.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Newmania,</p>
<p>I think deflation can be good or bad. Deflation can be caused by technological progress (railway lowering transport costs in the nineteenth century) or by a fundamental chnage (China&#8217;s entry into the global entry, pushing down costs of manufactured goods). In these cases, then yes deflation is good &#8211; it lowers costs.</p>
<p>However defkation can also be destructive, deflation caused by a fundamental lack of demand is likely to make demand even weaker. That coupled with high debt levels can be dangerous.</p>
<p>I would argue that in the early noughties Central Banks mistook &#8216;good&#8217; deflation (arising from China) for &#8216;bad&#8217; deflation and cut rates too far. But I also argue that what we face now is &#8216;bad&#8217; deflation.</p>
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		<title>By: newmania</title>
		<link>http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/whats-going-on/#comment-2</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[newmania]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2009 22:52:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/?p=7#comment-2</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the other hand deflation means salaries and savings are worth more and is generally rather liked . I cannot see the  panic and I notice   cheery faces at the Supermarket. You point about  spending drying up is only speculation , why by a watch a computer a  DVD  and so on when it will be cheaper tomorrow  ?  Doesn’t work does it 
I find what you say about “Just in time “ manufacturing interesting and such  thought has occurred to me in an inchoate way. I occurred to me when I thought if all the money wasted on bad banks had set a  good one with the inter web we could be in it tomorrow , technology has changed out of all proportion in the last  ten years  . Additionally the values of business selling retail services seems to me to be about zero if it based on client  base as has been suggested …well the building might be worth a bit everyone goes with  the press of button. Saving banks looks like  bad bad deal  for the taxpayer to me  , saving Northern Rock is mystifying ( well not given where it is ….)
All of this leads me  to suspect that throwing money at companies  only viable in a debt  based false boom is not a good idea and  a shake out is part of the cure . The system is not purged of excess house prices are still at levels considered  vertiginously high a year ago. Plenty of weak companies are still trading and plenty of borrowed money is still sloshing around in one form or another ( well is in my biz anyway)
You always say Demand  demand demand  but aside from preventing galloping deflation( …..Public Sector workers just a got a  pay rise , train fares just went up , fuel bills are still hideously high, when does it start ?).  What good does it do ?  You risk a long term  inflationary problem which will stop any recovery in its tracks and  if this demand is crated by printing money the  adjustments that need to be made will not be made. I do not  even get onto the  National debt . It is more the  flabby public sector and its clients that need to be “reformed” because this  effects the real defacit
Confidence is a rather different thing to demand . Confidence returns when people  do not suspect that nothing is worth much really . This will only return when there are people worth lending to and we can see who they are .You wish to prevent this  and it makes no sense to me 

The best plan is  to fund as much in tax cuits as we can and fund it with real reform  of the wasteful PS. AS this is financed with future tax rises on tax payer flinging it at Labour`s benefit vote will not be politically acceptable  to those who  actually make the beans 

Anyway  having carped  probably quiet ignorantly that was a great post and  this looks like being an excellent site .]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the other hand deflation means salaries and savings are worth more and is generally rather liked . I cannot see the  panic and I notice   cheery faces at the Supermarket. You point about  spending drying up is only speculation , why by a watch a computer a  DVD  and so on when it will be cheaper tomorrow  ?  Doesn’t work does it<br />
I find what you say about “Just in time “ manufacturing interesting and such  thought has occurred to me in an inchoate way. I occurred to me when I thought if all the money wasted on bad banks had set a  good one with the inter web we could be in it tomorrow , technology has changed out of all proportion in the last  ten years  . Additionally the values of business selling retail services seems to me to be about zero if it based on client  base as has been suggested …well the building might be worth a bit everyone goes with  the press of button. Saving banks looks like  bad bad deal  for the taxpayer to me  , saving Northern Rock is mystifying ( well not given where it is ….)<br />
All of this leads me  to suspect that throwing money at companies  only viable in a debt  based false boom is not a good idea and  a shake out is part of the cure . The system is not purged of excess house prices are still at levels considered  vertiginously high a year ago. Plenty of weak companies are still trading and plenty of borrowed money is still sloshing around in one form or another ( well is in my biz anyway)<br />
You always say Demand  demand demand  but aside from preventing galloping deflation( …..Public Sector workers just a got a  pay rise , train fares just went up , fuel bills are still hideously high, when does it start ?).  What good does it do ?  You risk a long term  inflationary problem which will stop any recovery in its tracks and  if this demand is crated by printing money the  adjustments that need to be made will not be made. I do not  even get onto the  National debt . It is more the  flabby public sector and its clients that need to be “reformed” because this  effects the real defacit<br />
Confidence is a rather different thing to demand . Confidence returns when people  do not suspect that nothing is worth much really . This will only return when there are people worth lending to and we can see who they are .You wish to prevent this  and it makes no sense to me </p>
<p>The best plan is  to fund as much in tax cuits as we can and fund it with real reform  of the wasteful PS. AS this is financed with future tax rises on tax payer flinging it at Labour`s benefit vote will not be politically acceptable  to those who  actually make the beans </p>
<p>Anyway  having carped  probably quiet ignorantly that was a great post and  this looks like being an excellent site .</p>
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