Duncan’s Economic Blog

GDP – Quick Chart

Posted in Uncategorized by duncanseconomicblog on April 27, 2011

I’ve got some reaction to the GDP release up at False Economy. Drawing on yesterday’s post previewing it.

To add a little more detail the chart below shows the OBR’s forecast for Q4 2010 and Q1 2011 as it was in June 2010, after Osborne’s emergency budget, in November 2010 and at the most recent Budget in March. It also shows the actual outturn of the data.

GDP is about 1.1% lower today than the OBR thought it would be 10 months ago, 0.8% lower than was assumed back in November and about 0.2% lower than the forecast from last month.

The question now is will the full year 2011 forecast be revised down? (For the fourth time).

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4 Responses

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  1. [...] It’s worth checking out this post by Duncan Weldon, the economics blogger. He’s worked out how GDP growth has lagged behind the [...]

  2. Dave Holden said, on April 27, 2011 at 12:11 pm

    In other words the OBR is a political sop for either party to use when convenient but as a model for guiding economic policy pretty feeble. Is this news?

  3. [...] It’s worth checking out this post by Duncan Weldon, the economics blogger. He’s worked out how GDP growth has lagged behind the [...]

  4. [...] It’s worth checking out this post by Duncan Weldon, the economics blogger. He’s worked out how GDP growth has lagged behind the [...]


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