How did the economy do in July? Early signs aren’t good

Today and yesterday we got our first look at how the economy might have performed in July and whilst it is too early to draw conclusions, the news isn’t good.

Today’s CBI distributive trades survey saw the headline number fall to -5% from -2% in June.

The CBI Distributive Trades Survey was conducted between 28 June and 19 July. It revealed that 33% of retailers saw sales volumes rise on a year ago, while 38% reported a fall. The resulting balance of -5% was the weakest since June 2010 (a balance of -5%) and disappointed retailers’ expectations. It continued the weakness seen in the June survey (-2%).

Yesterday’s industrial trends survey made from grim reading, as the CBI’s chief economist noted:

this slowdown is expected to persist into the third quarter. Consequently, manufacturers are now reappraising their business plans, with firms expecting to lower recruitment in the coming quarter and invest less in the year ahead. How far the slowdown will be borne out is yet unclear, but the combination of political and economic uncertainty is sapping confidence.

The economy doesn’t, on this limited evidence, seem to be bouncing back from sluggish growth in the second quarter.