Duncan’s Economic Blog

Dark Thoughts about the Future

Posted in Uncategorized by duncanseconomicblog on May 12, 2009

Reading Gideon Rachman’s article in the today’s FT on Hungary, I started to think dark thoughts about the future.

Hungary is in a much worse state than the UK, of that there is no doubt. But the parallel of a centre-left government brought low by an economic crisis can’t be entirely dismissed.

Some ‘highlights’ (my emphasis):

Nobody thinks the markets would tolerate huge fiscal deficits, so instead the government is cutting spending and raising taxes. State pensions were sliced by about 8 per cent last week. Sales tax has just been increased. And this is just the start of an austerity drive.

The political backlash is already beginning. Jobbik, a far-right party that plays on anti-gypsy sentiment, is likely to win a seat in the European parliament in elections next month. It has also formed a paramilitary wing, the Hungarian Guard, whose uniforms bear the insignia of pre-war Hungarian fascist parties – and which has staged marches in Budapest and has a presence in many small towns. Far-right arguments about crime and “welfare-scrounging” by the gypsy minority – who form between 5 and 10 per cent of the Hungarian population – are gaining ground. One mainstream politician worries that: “You now hear anti-gypsy sentiment at every level of society.” There has been a spate of unsolved killings of gypsies, which has been widely blamed on rightwing vigilantes.

With the Socialists discredited by the economic crisis and Mr Gyurcsány damaged by his trouble with the truth, the centre-right Fidesz party is almost certain to win.

Victor Orban, the Fidesz leader, is scrupulously vague about his economic programme. But party officials fear they may end up presiding over a downward economic spiral, as a contracting economy shrinks government revenues, creating further pressure for cuts.


8 Responses

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  1. newmania said, on May 12, 2009 at 11:00 am

    . I take it the point here is to associate any position to the British Democratic Socialists( well they say democratic ……) as a bit like some nutty Euro fascist . Lucky is it not , that the Conservative Party are not remotely fascistic traders in bestial prejudice that they have been portrayed as by the establishment left for so long. While the left were still trying to rehabilitate Stalin as late as the 80s no Conservative ever regarded Hitler with other than horror . It was the left who sought to over throw democracy not the Conservative Party who defended it from the Unions The Conservative Party , unlike the Labour Party and the Liberals ,values the Nation but its a tolerant and democratic Nation a gentle tempered proportional nation. There will no extremism here , extremism is what we have now extreme anti nationalism , extreme immigration , extreme and intolerant impositions of alien laws and loathed Liberal nostrums
    Of course the economic crisis has been made considerably worse by the Brown squander and no-one can deny that whatever the solution may be now . Had they stuck to Conservative spending plans we would be enormously better prepared and with afar healthier economy . Brown has to pay for that as do all those who assisted in the misery they helped cause ( again! )
    I do feel there is going to be civil unrest because there are no serious taxes left to squeeze and New Labour have created endless non jobs that will have to go . the holders of them will squeal like stuck pigs and quite rightly , they have been mislead.Forget taxes Duncan , Can`t pay won`t pay simple as that , someone will have to face down the Unions and we know that is not he Party who the unions finance almost 100%.

    Duncan even you a weird New labour fetishist with a Blow up Tony Blair with which you hold hands and kiss , even you can surely see this country cannot survive another term of Brown ? If we continue down this route you really do risk the break down or order and even the threat of it will bankrupt us

    • duncanseconomicblog said, on May 12, 2009 at 11:07 am

      You’ve finally lost it haven’t you? Do you need me to call someone?

      I am not comparing you or the Tory party to fascists. I am noting how the economic crisis has led to a rise in the support of the Hungarian fascists. We are sadly seeing the same thing here with the BNP.

      I am a ‘new Labour fetishist’. I am deeply distrubed by the thought of owning a ‘blow up Tony Blair’ with which I hold hands and kiss. Last week you accused me of being a Brownite, if memory serves. For what it’s worth I voted Cruddas in the deputy contest.

      • Will M said, on May 12, 2009 at 12:32 pm

        I must say, I thought you only got this level of abuse from your friends, Duncan. If I’d known you welcome it from strangers as well, I’d have put you in touch with a few of my exes.

  2. newmania said, on May 12, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    The rise of the BNP is long term . The blame lies with the elements of New Labour who despise the Nationalist socially conservative working class member and voter ( Know anyone like that hmmmm ?). Did you know that the second choice of 35% of the Labour Party is the BNP ?
    Under pressure a political system may rupture where it is not properly supported . In our system Nationalist and socially conservative sentiment has been disenfranchised by the Labour Party and its domination at the top by “Progressives” who despise the people voting for them. On the right , the lower middling , are structurally excluded from representation which goes to Oxbridge gophers Union pepes and the rich. The Parties nominate the MPs not the people and 80% will not lose their seat whatever happens It has become a fetid and stagnant pond of elitist and right now it actually pongs
    The answer is to stir it up by reconnecting to direct democracy and I agree with Frank Field and may more we need open Primaries .The fawning Courtiers we have are not stable enough and the system must not fail. This will entail losing the left wing progressive agenda but I feel it is a sacrifice worth making.

  3. CharlieMcMenamin said, on May 12, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    Recovery from economic crisis is certain as long as the UK blogosphere can boast such hard working trolls.

  4. tim f said, on May 12, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    “Did you know that the second choice of 35% of the Labour Party is the BNP ?”

    Evidence please. I’ve seen this claim before and it wasn’t true then, it isn’t true now.

  5. newmania said, on May 12, 2009 at 8:54 pm

    The ref is in my blog somewhere Tim and I can`t lay my hands on it . Its not a terribly suprising stat though as you can see from this


  6. newmania said, on May 12, 2009 at 8:59 pm

    .,.and this is rather telling “Labour’s support among C2 DE demographics was at a lower level in 2005 than the crushing defeat of 1983.”…..

    You get the picture

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