Duncan’s Economic Blog

US Unemployment & Banks

Posted in Uncategorized by duncanseconomicblog on November 6, 2009

The US Bank Stress Tests conducted by the Fed back in May:

Unemployment — in their negative scenario, the stress tests assumed a year-round average unemployment rate of 8.9 percent for the 2009 and 10.3 percent for 2010.

US unemployment just hit 10.2%.  The highest since 1983. The average for the year so far is 9.1%. If it stays at the current level (and I think it will go higher) the average will be 9.3%.

US under-employment (i.e. counting those working part time who want to work full time) now stands at 17.5%.

In other words things are much worse than the ‘worst case’ Scenario from only six months ago. And yet talk is still of withdrawing support, monetary policy exit strategies and fiscal tightening.

One Response

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  1. dannyboy said, on November 8, 2009 at 7:25 pm

    duncan what do you make of gordons call for a tobin tax?


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