Duncan’s Economic Blog

The UK Recovery in International Comparison

Posted in Uncategorized by duncanseconomicblog on May 13, 2011

Today’s European GDP figures  provide a stark reminder of how weak the UK recovery has become. German GDP is now back above its pre-crisis level, a feat the UK is not forecast to match until 2013.

The graph below vividly illustrates how the UK has fallen into the international slow lane in the past six months. We are now right at the bottom with Portugal and Greece, and behind Spain.

 

By contrast, in the six months before this (and before Osborne’s measures started to take effect) the UK was near the top of table.

 

As I said on Wednesday as the Bank of England downgraded it’s 2011 growth forecast, potentially adding another £12-14bn to the deficit, without growth there can be no credible deficit reduction.

8 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Dave Holden said, on May 13, 2011 at 12:23 pm

    It will be interesting to see what happens to German and French growth when Greece defaults because as I understand it their banks are right in the firing line of that one.

  2. Alex Ross said, on May 13, 2011 at 2:38 pm

    Hi Duncan,

    Thanks for posting this, I tweeted asking which other major economies had six months of no growth.

    One thing though, Hamish McRae in the Indy today says you can’t blame the govt too much on growth as the cuts haven’t properly kicked in yet, but my impression is we’ve had £6billion worth of cuts and seen the economy talked down for a year which has affected confidence, but how much could this affect growth and what would it have been like under labour?

    Any thoughts?

    • duncanseconomicblog said, on May 13, 2011 at 2:44 pm

      Yes – collapse in business & consumer confidence driven by all the tough talk has certainly had an effect.

  3. Will M said, on May 13, 2011 at 3:35 pm

    I prefer it when you talk about Star Trek.

  4. Adam Lent said, on May 13, 2011 at 11:35 pm

    ONS’s growth report for Q1 showed government spending as one of the main contributors to growth. So I’m not sure we can say cuts are shrinking the economy yet but they certainly will do sooner or later. The tough talk may have dented confidence but there a few other factors that have probably had a bigger impact not least prices.

  5. […] so hard and so fast, we would be in the same boat as Greece and Portugal. As Duncan Weldon’s blog reveals, actually it’s because the coalition chose to cut so deep and so fast that we are now […]

  6. […] threat of recession just to try and prevent cuts for ideological reasons. And as he pointed out in a follow-up post, evidence that the UK’s recovery is slowing is abundant. In the second and third quarters of […]

  7. […] threat of recession just to try and prevent cuts for ideological reasons. And as he pointed out in a follow-up post, evidence that the UK’s recovery is slowing is abundant. In the second and third quarters of […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: