GDP growth & the missed OBR forecasts
The chart below shows the OBR forecasts for the last four quarters of growth as they were in June last year before Osborne’s emergency budget, in June last year post that budget, in November last year and (the most up to date) forecasts from March. It also shows the actual outturn.
As can be seen the economy is 1.3% smaller today than the OBR thought it would be before Osborne’s first budget and 1% smaller than it thought afterwards.
It’s 0.4% smaller than the OBR estimated it would as recently as March.
The OBR forecast for the year of 1.7% now looks to be about as accurate as its previous estimates.
(More from me on Labourlist)